Reunión de abril con Carlos Salas: “La Peste Financiera”
Arantxa Villar mayo 5th, 2009
De la crisis, hay que aprender una lección importante.
Trayectoria Profesional
Tuvimos el placer de recibir en la sesión inaugural de las reuniones ThinkTank a un profesional de la talla de Carlos Salas.
Siempre orientado al periodismo económico, Carlos comenzó su carrera profesional como becario en “Actualidad Económica”, de donde pasó a “El Mundo”, como redactor de economía y acabó encargándose esa sección y de la de internacional.
Posteriormente realizó el lanzamiento de la revista “Capital” y a los 6 años, del diario nacional “El Economista”.
En los últimos años ha dirigido el periódico “Metro”, y actualmente escribe en “El Mundo”, como él mismo comenta, “economía para todo el mundo”.
http://clavesocultasdelaeconomia.blogspot.com/
El libro: “La crisis explicada a sus víctimas”
Desde nuestro blog queremos agradecer a Carlos la deferencia que tuvo compartiendo con todos nosotros un tiempo de incalculable valor.
La Peste Financiera
Carlos Salas utiliza la peste bubónica, que afectó a la población mundial en los siglos VI, XIV y XVII (1665), como metáfora de la crisis financiera.
¿Cómo era España en 2007? Una fiesta: paro del 8%, mayor superávit fiscal de la democracia, superávit histórico de la Seguridad Social, máxima ocupación, euríbor bajando, crecimiento del PIB del 3,8%, record histórico de la Bolsa…
A finales del 2007 la oposición ya avisaba de la crisis que se avecinaba, sin embargo el gobierno no, ¿por qué? Por la aproximación de las elecciones generales.
¿Cómo empezó 2008?
Jerôme Kerviel hizo perder a su banco de inversión 5.000 millones de euros, el mayor agujero causado por una persona a un banco, declarando para defenderse, que ellos le empujaron a eso, ya que era “su método”. ¿A qué se refería? Sirve como ejemplo la película “Boiler Room”, centrada en el mundo de los brokers. En ella, un corredor veterano les afirma a los recién incorporados lo que supone estar en la compañía: “… te conviertes en empleado de la firma y harás 1 millón de dólares en 3 años…”; “… la gente aquí trabaja para convertirse en un asqueroso ricachón…”.
Los brokers se dedicaron a jugar alegremente con el dinero de sus clientes y perdieron la noción de la realidad. De hecho, Kerviel, en sus confesiones, admite que le hicieron jugar a corto y ganó mucho dinero tras acontecimientos como el 11-S y los atentados de Londres.
Carlos Salas afirma que el “hambre de dinero” es la pulga de la peste bubónica, a la que la bacteria le provoca un hambre atroz que le hace picar a todo lo que se encuentra en su camino.
Otro ejemplo: Blas y Ruth regalaban su casa en Ripollet con la hipoteca, por 235.000 €, significando el primer indicio de lo que se avecinaba.
¿Qué había pasado en España?
Mucha gente se había dedicado a especular comprando y vendiendo pisos. Miles de personas pidieron créditos por encima de sus posibilidades, siendo el 99% de los mismos a interés variable. Surgieron constructores y promotores de la noche a la mañana y se construyeron más viviendas en proporción que en EEUU.
… Y llegó el castigo divino
Se produjeron tres ciclones que crearon el caldo de cultivo propicio para la mayor pandemia financiera de la historia: los tipos de interés subieron, empujados por… la inflación en aumento, debido a… la subida del petróleo.
Pero faltaba el detonador.
La deuda y la sofisticación financiera
Leo Melamed, cuando cayó el patrón oro, creó el Mercado Internacional de Divisas en Chicago en 1972. Pronto se pasaría a comercializar con bonos, letras del tesoro y muchos más productos, siendo según “The Economist”, el principio de la sofisticación financiera y del estallido de la especulación.
Los mercados financieros eliminaron los controles y se convirtieron en sistemas mundiales interconectados, oportunidad que aprovecharon los bancos de inversión. Se inventaron entonces, los CDO y los CDS, y comenzaron las mergers & adquisitions, los leverages buy out y los junk bonds.
Dos economistas, Fisher Black y Myron Scholes, crearon el sistema Black-Scholes que calculaba la volatilidad de los valores y las opciones para eliminar el riesgo, un sistema matemático tan complicado que los ordenadores hacían el trabajo de los traders.
Y es entonces, cuando los ejecutivos se convierten en las estrellas del mundo empresarial, comenzándose a mover dinero de un lado para otro con facilidad.
Pero, ¿quién fue uno de los responsables de ese “caldo de cultivo”?
Bush, en el año 2002 afirmó: “Todo americano ha de ser propietario de su casa, ya que es un valor americano. Pido al sistema financiero que me ayude.”
Es entonces cuando los tipos comenzaron a bajar (del 6% al 1% en pocos meses), y comenzó en EEUU una locura de créditos, pero no sólo para la vivienda, sino también para el consumo. Y se empezaron a dar las llamadas “hipotecas basura” o sub-prime, a NINJAs (No Income, No Jobs, No Asset).
… Y suben los tipos
Y la gente no puede pagar. Hay que destacar una importante diferencia entre USA y España, y es que en Estados Unidos, la hipoteca recae sobre la casa, no sobre la persona.
Los bancos de inversión empezaron a meter las deudas en paquetes financieros con nombres bonitos, y a venderlos por todo el mundo, involucrando a bancos comerciales y bancos de inversión, especuladores, intermediarios, brokers…
El primer signo de que la crisis había comenzado fue la caída de Lehman Brothers, siendo también cuando comenzaron las catástrofes en cadena.
Un cisne negro
Cada cierto tiempo la humanidad sufre un cisne negro: nunca puedas afirmar nada hasta que pase. No existen cisnes negros hasta que te encuentras a uno. Por tanto, un cisne negro es algo que cambia totalmente la estructura.
Uno de este tipo de aves es Bernard Madoff, que vendía mentiras y la gente se lo creyó, porque era judío y los judíos no se equivocan con el dinero; porque fue presidente del Nasdaq; y porque la gente es avariciosa…
¿Qué mecanismos de control han fallado?
- Alan Greenspan, dijo que EEUU amaba el riesgo y que esta ideología no había fallado en 40 años.
- El FMI, que afirmó que era una crisis manejable y no grave.
- La SEC, que no detectó a Madoff y sus manejos.
- Los Bancos Centrales, porque únicamente se fijaron en la inflación.
- Las agencias de rating, que en un principio eran pagadas por los inversores pero, para ganar más dinero, pasan a aceptar ser sufragadas por los emisores de deuda.
- Las sociedades de Tasación, que más de la mitad pertenecen a los bancos, y han hecho subir el precio de la vivienda a su antojo.
- Los bancos, que te dan un paraguas cuando no llueve y te lo quitan cuando llega la tormenta.
- Los medios de comunicación, que han evitado la realidad porque las malas noticias y el pesimismo venden menos periódicos.
Les pasó lo mismo que a los médicos del siglo XVI, que se acercaban al enfermo, le tocaban de lejos con un palo… pero no sabían como combatir la peste.
Voces que avisaron
Armando Falcon avisó en 2003 que sociedades hipotecarias semiestatales como Fannie Mae y Freddie Mac se habían convertido en un serio riesgo y que su hundimiento podía poner en peligro el sistema financiero norteamericano y mundial. Fue destituido.
Paul Krugman, en 2005, acusó a Greespan de azuzar a los americanos a que se endeudaran. Nadie le hizo caso.
Un periodista de “The Wall Street Journal” escribió un artículo en 2007 titulado “La bomba de la deuda”. Pasó desapercibido.
Short selling
La peste financiera tiene un componente peor de lo imaginado como es el “short selling”, y que consiste en vender antes de comprar, es decir, vender lo que no se tiene. De hecho, gracias un agujero negro en esta clase de operaciones, Volkswagen llegó a ser, durante unas horas, la empresa más valiosa del mundo: 287.000 millones de euros.
Conclusiones
Lo peor de la crisis… el derrumbe de la confianza, siendo la principal conclusión que todos fuimos víctimas de la codicia.
Y las peores consecuencias para España son que hay más de cuatro millones de parados, y más de un millón de familias con todos sus miembros en paro. Que se ha producido una caída del consumo y de la producción. Y que existe una amenaza de deflación.
Soluciones propuestas
- Congelar o bajar salarios, para conseguir hacer el país más competitivo.
- Estímulos al consumo. Ayudas a la compra de productos que tienen un impacto poderoso en la economía.
- Control del gasto público. España tiene más de 3 millones de funcionarios a los que se destinan unos 80.000 millones de euros al año.
- Inversión pública. España tiene margen para emitir deuda, y con ella invertir en grandes obras públicas (que produzcan riqueza y empleo), o pagar las deudas de la administración con las empresas.
- Pacto. Un acuerdo entre el Gobierno, los empresarios y los sindicatos para atacar la crisis y dar imagen de unidad y estabilidad.
- Modificar el sistema educativo. Más escuelas técnicas, menos universidades y más inglés en las aulas.
- Modificar el sistema productivo. Menos ladrillo, más tecnología y más diseño.
- RESTAURAR LA CONFIANZA (sobre todo).
A diferencia de los europeos, que sufrieron la peste bubónica hace siglos, nosotros sí sabemos lo que lo causa, sabemos combatirla, y al igual que ellos sobreviviremos.
Sin embargo, hay que aprender una lección importante: “No volverás a codiciar en vano”.
PREGUNTAS
Pregunta: Antes se sabía quién tenía la peste, pero ahora no.
Carlos Salas: Lo que no se sabía en siglos pasados qué transmitía la peste. Ahora, los Bancos Centrales van sabiendo quién tiene problemas financieros, pero no lo quieren decir.
El sistema financiero puede asumir la caída de cajas si la gente no se vuelve loca. Se conocen dónde están los activos contaminados y qué cajas o bancos están mal, pero ¿se dice o no?
¿Qué medidores se pueden usar para conocer cómo está un banco o caja? La morosidad, que actualmente se encuentra al 5%.
P: ¿Qué ocurre cuándo los planes de rescate afectan a Bancos con buena liquidez?
C.S: En USA hay bancos que ya están devolviendo el dinero de los rescates, porque muchos se sienten “culpables” y su imagen se ha desplomado. Hay un riesgo terrible para el sistema financiero, ya que actualmente, la gente odia a los bancos. Aunque haya entidades que estén bien, el riesgo de contaminación es alto.
P: Informe J.P.Morgan, donde se comparaba el ratio de morosidad con el ratio de capacidad de cubrir la deuda y cuadra perfectamente, ¿por qué tanto secretismo?
C.S: Hay un efecto pánico, ya que, por ejemplo, el informar de colas en los bancos, extiende la peste.
El sistema financiero español seguía la “ley de la hormiga”, e iba aprovisionando. Sin embargo, España tiene gran déficit exterior ya que no había en el país tanto dinero para tantos créditos.
P: ¿Y las agencias de rating? ¿Por qué no han caído?
C.S: Es de vergüenza el que hayan descalificado la deuda española.
La UE va a publicar normas de control de las agencias de rating, que las van a castigar.
De hecho, creo que los medios de comunicación no han sido lo suficientemente crueles con las agencias. El principal problema es que hasta ahora no han tenido responsabilidad civil.
P: ¿Pueden ser los CDS un medidor para saber cómo están los bancos y cajas?
C.S: Leo Relamed reconoce que los CDS son una locura, y ha creado un mercado transparente para los mismos. Los CDS no son un mal instrumento, pero pueden ser utilizados por el “diablo” para hacer caer empresas.
Warren Buffet llamó a los CDS “armas financieras de destrucción masiva”.
P: ¿Maneja datos de cuándo llegaremos al fondo y cuándo será el repunte?
C.S: No me atrevo. Hay dos temas a tener en cuenta: ninguna crisis se parece a otra, y la actual tienen dos características destacables, que son Internet y la gran intervención por parte de los gobiernos.
Internet conecta a todo el mundo, y hace que igual que se entra en la crisis, se puede salir. Creo que saldremos antes de lo que la gente espera, ya que el problema es que los economistas miden con los antiguos sistemas, olvidándose de la red. De hecho, espero el día en el que le den el premio Nóbel a alguien que hable de la influencia de Internet en la economía. De hecho, las posibilidades del ser humano de hacer negocios son más altas ahora que nunca.
P: Si ha señalado a Bush y sus afirmaciones como causante de la crisis en EEUU, ¿a quién destacaría en España? Y, ¿cuál cree que ha sido la causa de que en los últimos años surgieran tal cantidad de promotores y constructores?
C.S: Si la construcción hubiera sido un producto de alta tecnología, no se hubiera convertido en un mercado de acceso fácil. Además, la Bolsa daba menos que el ladrillo.
Por otra parte, en la segunda etapa de Aznar, reconocieron que habían creado “un patatal”. No lo previó nadie, ya que se deberían haber subido los tipos de interés antes.
Comentario de oyente: Si en el precio de la vivienda, el 80% es el valor del suelo, creo que falta regulación de un bien de necesidad básica.
Comentario de oyente: Creo que el problema es que hay mucho intermediario en el negocio del suelo. El error no está en la recalificación del suelo, sino en la no obligatoriedad a construir.
C.S: En un mercado libre no sé si se podría hacer.
P: ¿Cómo ves a un MBA en la crisis actual?
C.S: El problema que veo en los que han cursado un Máster, es que deberían ir a empresas de alta tecnología o a la gestión del Estado. Pero cuando veo que todos quieren ir a bancos de inversión, creo que hay mucho talento desperdiciado.
Me preocupan los periodistas, ya que está cambiando el modelo de la profesión.
Veo también que muchos Masters no están suficientemente al día.
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- Economía , Reuniones Think Tank
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